دورية أكاديمية

A Comparison of Generalised Linear Modelling with Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Loss Cost in Motor Insurance

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: A Comparison of Generalised Linear Modelling with Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Loss Cost in Motor Insurance
المؤلفون: Alinta Ann Wilson, Antonio Nehme, Alisha Dhyani, Khaled Mahbub
المصدر: Risks, Vol 12, Iss 4, p 62 (2024)
بيانات النشر: MDPI AG, 2024.
سنة النشر: 2024
مصطلحات موضوعية: Generalised Linear Model (GLM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), frequency modelling, severity modelling, loss cost model, Insurance, HG8011-9999
الوصف: This study explores the insurance pricing domain in the motor insurance industry, focusing on the creation of “technical models” which are essentially obtained after combining the frequency model (the expected number of claims per unit of exposure) and the severity model (the expected amount per claim). Technical models are designed to predict the loss costs (the product of frequency and severity, i.e., the expected claim amount per unit of exposure) and this is a main factor that is taken into account for pricing insurance policies. Other factors for pricing include the company expenses, investments, reinsurance, underwriting, and other regulatory restrictions. Different machine learning methodologies, including the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and a unique hybrid model that combines GLM and ANN, were explored for creating the technical models. This study was conducted on the French Motor Third Party Liability datasets, “freMTPL2freq” and “freMTPL2sev” included in the R package CASdatasets. After building the aforementioned models, they were evaluated and it was observed that the hybrid model which combines GLM and ANN outperformed all other models. ANN also demonstrated better predictions closely aligning with the performance of the hybrid model. The better performance of neural network models points to the need for actuarial science and the insurance industry to look beyond traditional modelling methodologies like GLM.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2227-9091
Relation: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/12/4/62; https://doaj.org/toc/2227-9091
DOI: 10.3390/risks12040062
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/2573c7bae54f4e46b492da1af61d2d69
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.2573c7bae54f4e46b492da1af61d2d69
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:22279091
DOI:10.3390/risks12040062