دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations
المؤلفون: Aimée B. A. Slangen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Renske C. de Winter, John R. Hunter, Philip L. Woodworth, Tamsin Edwards
المصدر: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 5, Iss 2, p 21 (2017)
بيانات النشر: MDPI AG, 2017.
سنة النشر: 2017
المجموعة: LCC:Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
LCC:Oceanography
مصطلحات موضوعية: sea-level rise, allowances, sea-level extremes, Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering, VM1-989, Oceanography, GC1-1581
الوصف: Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics’ uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions), due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 10 4 at more than 50–87% of the tide gauges.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2077-1312
Relation: http://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/2/21; https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312
DOI: 10.3390/jmse5020021
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/279196dfbe6740979ff48081b85e0e56
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.279196dfbe6740979ff48081b85e0e56
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:20771312
DOI:10.3390/jmse5020021