دورية أكاديمية
Effects of vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks: a conceptual modeling approach
| العنوان: | Effects of vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks: a conceptual modeling approach |
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| المؤلفون: | Allison Fisher, Hainan Xu, Daihai He, Xueying Wang |
| المصدر: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol 20, Iss 3, Pp 4816-4837 (2023) |
| بيانات النشر: | AIMS Press, 2023. |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Biotechnology LCC:Mathematics |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | covid-19, vaccination, seird model, reproduction number, threshold dynamics, Biotechnology, TP248.13-248.65, Mathematics, QA1-939 |
| الوصف: | This paper is devoted to investigating the impact of vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks. In this work, we propose a compartmental epidemic ordinary differential equation model, which extends the previous so-called SEIRD model [1,2,3,4] by incorporating the birth and death of the population, disease-induced mortality and waning immunity, and adding a vaccinated compartment to account for vaccination. Firstly, we perform a mathematical analysis for this model in a special case where the disease transmission is homogeneous and vaccination program is periodic in time. In particular, we define the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ for this system and establish a threshold type of result on the global dynamics in terms of $ \mathcal{R}_0 $. Secondly, we fit our model into multiple COVID-19 waves in four locations including Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea and then forecast the trend of COVID-19 by the end of 2022. Finally, we study the effects of vaccination again the ongoing pandemic by numerically computing the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ under different vaccination programs. Our findings indicate that the fourth dose among the high-risk group is likely needed by the end of the year. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1551-0018 |
| Relation: | https://doaj.org/toc/1551-0018 |
| DOI: | 10.3934/mbe.2023223?viewType=HTML |
| DOI: | 10.3934/mbe.2023223 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/2cc03caf1d914a218a737ba0644eb47b |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.2cc03caf1d914a218a737ba0644eb47b |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 15510018 |
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| DOI: | 10.3934/mbe.2023223?viewType=HTML |