The accurate determination of the annual lightning flash number to a wind turbine is essential for designing proper lightning protection measures. However, the method to assess the lightning risk of wind turbines recommended by the IEC is not associated with the actual lightning attachment process. Additionally, there is little research on positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning. In this study, a lightning risk assessment method correlated with wind turbines on the basis of an improved stochastic lightning model is proposed. Based on the model, the influence of the lightning current amplitude, wind turbine heights and blade rotations on lightning strike risk are quantitatively analyzed. Moreover, the development and distribution characteristics of negative cloud-to-ground (−CG) lightning and +CG lightning are discussed. Finally, a more accurate calculation method of lightning strike risk is proposed considering the polarity effect. The results show that the effect of blade rotations on lightning risk cannot be ignored when the lightning current is large or when the wind turbine is tall. The −CG lightning has more bifurcation, but the dispersity of its development path and the lightning strike point are both small. The +CG lightning has scattered lightning strike points, and the development paths are tortuous, and. According to the verification calculation, the results calculated in this paper are in better agreement with the observation data than the results calculated by the IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) recommended method.
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