دورية أكاديمية
On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe
| العنوان: | On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe |
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| المؤلفون: | C. Lavaysse, J. Vogt, A. Toreti, M. L. Carrera, F. Pappenberger |
| المصدر: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 18, Pp 3297-3309 (2018) |
| بيانات النشر: | Copernicus Publications, 2018. |
| سنة النشر: | 2018 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering LCC:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation LCC:Environmental sciences LCC:Geology |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Geology, QE1-996.5 |
| الوصف: | An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based on forecasted precipitation derived from the Ensemble extended forecast model (ENS) of the ECMWF, and on forecasted monthly occurrence anomalies of weather regimes (MOAWRs), also derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that the MOAWRs approach outperforms the one based on forecasted precipitation in winter in the north-eastern parts of the European continent, where more than 65 % of droughts are detected 1 month in advance. The approach based on forecasted precipitation achieves better performance in predicting drought events in central and eastern Europe in both spring and summer, when the local atmospheric forcing could be the key driver of the precipitation. Sensitivity tests also reveal the challenges in predicting small-scale droughts and drought onsets at longer lead times. Finally, the results show that the ENS model of the ECMWF successfully represents most of the observed linkages between large-scale atmospheric patterns, depicted by the weather regimes and drought events over Europe. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| Relation: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/18/3297/2018/nhess-18-3297-2018.pdf; https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633; https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/34fda1c2127d430cb4e20129e2759b83 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.34fda1c2127d430cb4e20129e2759b83 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 15618633 16849981 |
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| DOI: | 10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018 |