Dendrolimus superans, a prominent forest pest in northeast China, exerts detrimental effects on tree growth and development, disrupts the ecological functioning of forests, and even alters the trajectory of succession. The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of habitat conditions on the occurrence probability and density of overwintering D. superans, aiming to provide scientific insights for the effective prevention of and control measures against this pest infestation. The investigation encompassed 142 plots (20 m × 20 m) in various forest types within the primary distribution area of D. superans in the Great Xing’ an Mountains, focusing on factors such as topography, forest vegetation, and larval density. Binary logistic regression was employed to establish models for predicting the occurrence probability of D. superans, while generalized linear models (GLMs) and categorical regression (CATREG) were utilized to develop models for estimating its population size. Subsequently, an evaluation was conducted to assess the performance of these models. The occurrence probability model showed high accuracy (AUC = 0.826) in predicting infestation. The slope aspect and herb cover were the key factors affecting the occurrence of D. superans. The occurrence probability was the lowest on shady slopes and the highest on sunny slopes. The occurrence probability of D. superans increased with the increase in herb cover. The model of quantification showed that the density of D. superans was the least on shady slopes and the highest on sunny slopes. As the slope gradient increased, the density decreased. D. superans occurred most frequently on ridges. Similarly, with the increase in canopy cover or the decrease in diameter at breast height (DBH) and stand density, the density of D. superans increased. The influence of the topography factors surpassed that of the forest vegetation factors in shaping the population dynamics of D. superans, despite both being significant contributors. The study revealed that D. superans is prone to occur on sunny slopes, flat slopes, and ridges, which should be the focus of prevention and control in forest management practices, such as replanting, thinning, and regular weeding, to help restrain the growth of the population of this pest.
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