دورية أكاديمية

Modeling Investment Trends: A Logarithmic-Modified Markov Chain Approach

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Modeling Investment Trends: A Logarithmic-Modified Markov Chain Approach
المؤلفون: Imoh Udo Moffat, James Augustine Ukpabio, Emmanuel Alphonsus Akpan
المصدر: Journal of Statistical Theory and Applications (JSTA), Vol 19, Iss 3 (2020)
بيانات النشر: Springer, 2020.
سنة النشر: 2020
المجموعة: LCC:Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
مصطلحات موضوعية: Convergence, Heteroscdasticity, Logarithmic transformation, Markov chain, Stochastic process, Transition matrix, Probabilities. Mathematical statistics, QA273-280
الوصف: The study aimed at stabilizing the changing variance using the logarithmic transformation to achieve a significant proportion of stability and a faster rate of convergence of the steady state transition probability in Markov chains. The traditional Markov chain and logarithmic-modified Markov chain were considered. On exploring the yearly data on the stock prices from 2015 to 2018 as obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange, it was found that the steady state of logarithmic-modified Markov chain converged faster than the tradition Markov chain with efficiency in tracking the correct cycles where the stock movements are trending irrespective of which cycle it starts at time zero with differences in probability values by 1.1%, 0.7%, −0.41% and −1.37% for accumulation, markup, distribution and mark-down cycles, respectively. Thus, it could be deduced that the logarithmic modification enhances the ability of the Markov chain to tract the variation of the steady state probabilities faster than the traditional counterpart.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2214-1766
Relation: https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125945156/view; https://doaj.org/toc/2214-1766
DOI: 10.2991/jsta.d.201006.001
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/42f47216760546c390711cd57f630a3a
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.42f47216760546c390711cd57f630a3a
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:22141766
DOI:10.2991/jsta.d.201006.001