Abstract The phenology of critical biological events in aquatic ecosystems is rapidly shifting due to climate change. Growing variability in phenological cues can increase the likelihood of trophic mismatches (i.e., mismatches in the timing of peak prey and predator abundances), causing recruitment failures in important fisheries. We assessed changes in the spawning phenology of walleye (Sander vitreus) in 194 Midwest US lakes to investigate factors influencing walleye phenological responses to climate change and associated climate variability, including ice‐off timing, lake physical characteristics, and population stocking history. Ice‐off phenology shifted earlier, about three times faster than walleye spawning phenology over time. Spawning phenology deviations from historic averages increased in magnitude over time, and large deviations were associated with poor offspring survival. Our results foreshadow the risks of increasingly frequent natural recruitment failures due to mismatches between historically tightly coupled spawning and ice‐off phenology.
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