دورية أكاديمية
Reply to 'Comment on 'Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation by Jordan et al. [2011]' by Stuart Crampin'
| العنوان: | Reply to 'Comment on 'Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation by Jordan et al. [2011]' by Stuart Crampin' |
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| المؤلفون: | Koshun Yamaoka, Gennady Sobolev, Warner Marzocchi, Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Ian Main, Raul Madariaga, Paolo Gasparini, Yun-Tai Chen, Thomas H. Jordan, Jochen Zschau |
| المصدر: | Annals of Geophysics, Vol 55, Iss 1 (2012) |
| بيانات النشر: | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), 2012. |
| سنة النشر: | 2012 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Meteorology. Climatology LCC:Geophysics. Cosmic physics |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809 |
| الوصف: | In his commentary on the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) report [Jordan et al. 2011], Crampin [2012] claims that observable changes in shear-wave splitting can predict large earthquakes on short time scales with high reliability and skill, and he challenges a central ICEF finding—that no method has yet demonstrated such a predictive capability. In particular, Crampin asserts that "observations of seismic shear-wave splitting monitored at a three-borehole Stress-Monitoring Site (SMS) in central Italy could monitor stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation (crack-coalescence) before all damaging (M ≥ 5) earthquakes within 1000 km of the SMS […] This means that installation of one expensive SMS (preferably two throughout the length of Italy) would stress-forecast the time, magnitude, and in some circumstances fault-break of all potentially damaging on the mainland of Italy".Crampin's assertions are based on prediction methods he has advocated for several decades [e.g., Crampin et al. 1984; Crampin et al. 1990]. As part of the ICEF study, we reviewed the literature on these methods. Nothing contained in the present commentary compels us to alter our previous findings. [...] |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1593-5213 2037-416X |
| Relation: | http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5690; https://doaj.org/toc/1593-5213; https://doaj.org/toc/2037-416X |
| DOI: | 10.4401/ag-5690 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/c4f79b7b83774d249edb8d0ba327fd3a |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.4f79b7b83774d249edb8d0ba327fd3a |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 15935213 2037416X |
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| DOI: | 10.4401/ag-5690 |