To optimize postoperative surveillance of lung cancer patients, we investigated the hazard function of tumor recurrence in patients with completely resected lung cancer. We analyzed the records of 12,897 patients in the 2010 Japanese Joint Committee of Lung Cancer Registry who underwent lobectomy to completely resect pathological stage I–III lung cancer. The risk of postoperative recurrence was determined using a cause-specific hazard function. The hazard function for recurrence exhibited a peak at approximately 9 months after surgery, followed by a tapered plateau-like tail extending to 60 months. The peak risk for intrathoracic recurrence was approximately two-fold higher compared with that of extrathoracic recurrence. Subgroup analysis showed that patients with stage IIIA adenocarcinoma had a continuously higher risk of recurrence compared with patients with earlier-stage disease. However, the risk of recurrence in patients with squamous cell carcinoma was not significantly different compared with that more than 24 months after surgery, regardless of pathological stage. In conclusion, the characteristics of postoperative tumor recurrence hazard in a large cohort of lung cancer patients may be useful for determining the time after surgery at which patients are at the highest risk of tumor recurrence. This information may improve stage-related management of postoperative surveillance.
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