دورية أكاديمية

Predictive models for COVID-19 cases, deaths and recoveries in Algeria

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Predictive models for COVID-19 cases, deaths and recoveries in Algeria
المؤلفون: M. Lounis, O. Torrealba-Rodriguez, R.A. Conde-Gutiérrez
المصدر: Results in Physics, Vol 30, Iss , Pp 104845- (2021)
بيانات النشر: Elsevier, 2021.
سنة النشر: 2021
المجموعة: LCC:Physics
مصطلحات موضوعية: COVID-19, Algeria, Modeling, Gompertz, Logistic, Bertalanffy, Physics, QC1-999
الوصف: This study was conducted to predict the number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and recoveries using reported data by the Algerian Ministry of health from February 25, 2020 to January 10, 2021. Four models were compared including Gompertz model, logistic model, Bertalanffy model and inverse artificial neural network (ANNi). Results showed that all the models showed a good fit between the predicted and the real data (R2 >0.97). In this study, we demonstrate that obtaining a good fit of real data is not directly related to a good prediction efficiency with future data. In predicting cases, the logistic model obtained the best precision with an error of 0.92% compared to the rest of the models studied. In deaths, the Gompertz model stood out with a minimum error of 1.14%. Finally, the ANNi model reached an error of 1.16% in the prediction of recovered cases in Algeria..
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2211-3797
Relation: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379721008901; https://doaj.org/toc/2211-3797
DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104845
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/71e8f9cfbc1e4751bfc666acd0159a4e
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.71e8f9cfbc1e4751bfc666acd0159a4e
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:22113797
DOI:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104845