دورية أكاديمية
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
| العنوان: | Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Z. Cui, S. Guo, H. Chen, D. Liu, Y. Zhou, C.-Y. Xu |
| المصدر: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 28, Pp 2809-2829 (2024) |
| بيانات النشر: | Copernicus Publications, 2024. |
| سنة النشر: | 2024 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Technology LCC:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering LCC:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation LCC:Environmental sciences |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Technology, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Environmental sciences, GE1-350 |
| الوصف: | The Bayesian model averaging (BMA), hydrological uncertainty processor (HUP), and HUP-BMA methods have been widely used to quantify flood forecast uncertainty. This study proposes the copula-based hydrological uncertainty processor BMA (CHUP-BMA) method by introducing a copula-based HUP in the framework of BMA to bypass the need for a normal quantile transformation of the HUP-BMA method. The proposed ensemble forecast scheme consists of eight members (two forecast precipitation inputs; two advanced long short-term memory, LSTM, models; and two objective functions used to calibrate parameters) and is applied to the interval basin between the Xiangjiaba and Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) dam sites. The ensemble forecast performance of the HUP-BMA and CHUP-BMA methods is explored in the 6–168 h forecast horizons. The TGR inflow forecasting results show that the two methods can improve the forecast accuracy over the selected member with the best forecast accuracy and that the CHUP-BMA performs much better than the HUP-BMA. Compared with the HUP-BMA method, the forecast interval width and continuous ranked probability score metrics of the CHUP-BMA method are reduced by a maximum of 28.42 % and 17.86 % within all forecast horizons, respectively. The probability forecast of the CHUP-BMA method has better reliability and sharpness and is more suitable for flood ensemble forecasts, providing reliable risk information for flood control decision-making. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| Relation: | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/2809/2024/hess-28-2809-2024.pdf; https://doaj.org/toc/1027-5606; https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7938 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/72a5be775d644dcb9613ffae06594af5 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.72a5be775d644dcb9613ffae06594af5 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 10275606 16077938 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024 |