Abstract Objective Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) seriously affects the feasibility and safety of surgical treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. The aim of this study was to establish a new surgical scheme defining risk classification of post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) to facilitate the surgical decision-making and identify suitable candidates for individual hepatectomy among HCC patients with CSPH. Backgrounds Hepatectomy is the preferred treatment for HCC. Surgeons must maintain a balance between the expected oncological outcomes of HCC removal and short-term risks of severe PHLF and morbidity. CSPH aggravates liver decompensation and increases the risk of severe PHLF thus complicating hepatectomy for HCC. Methods Multivariate logistic regression and stochastic forest algorithm were performed, then the independent risk factors of severe PHLF were included in a nomogram to determine the risk of severe PHLF. Further, a conditional inference tree (CTREE) through recursive partitioning analysis validated supplement the misdiagnostic threshold of the nomogram. Results This study included 924 patients, of whom 137 patients (14.8%) suffered from mild-CSPH and 66 patients suffered from (7.1%) with severe-CSPH confirmed preoperatively. Our data showed that preoperative prolonged prothrombin time, total bilirubin, indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min, CSPH grade, and standard future liver remnant volume were independent predictors of severe PHLF. By incorporating these factors, the nomogram achieved good prediction performance in assessing severe PHLF risk, and its concordance statistic was 0.891, 0.850 and 0.872 in the training cohort, internal validation cohort and external validation cohort, respectively, and good calibration curves were obtained. Moreover, the calculations of total points of diagnostic errors with 95% CI were concentrated in 110.5 (range 76.9-178.5). It showed a low risk of severe PHLF (2.3%), indicating hepatectomy is feasible when the points fall below 76.9, while the risk of severe PHLF is extremely high (93.8%) and hepatectomy should be rigorously restricted at scores over 178.5. Patients with points within the misdiagnosis threshold were further examined using CTREE according to a hierarchic order of factors represented by the presence of CSPH grade, ICG-R15, and sFLR. Conclusion This new surgical scheme established in our study is practical to stratify risk classification in assessing severe PHLF, thereby facilitating surgical decision-making and identifying suitable candidates for individual hepatectomy.
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