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Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s
المؤلفون: Jiale Lou, Matthew Newman, Andrew Hoell
المصدر: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2023)
بيانات النشر: Nature Portfolio, 2023.
سنة النشر: 2023
المجموعة: LCC:Environmental sciences
LCC:Meteorology. Climatology
مصطلحات موضوعية: Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
الوصف: Abstract Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since the late 1800s using the model-analog technique, which has neither limitation. We first draw global coupled model states from pre-industrial control simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, that are chosen to initially match observed monthly sea surface temperature and height anomalies in the Tropics. Their subsequent 36-month model evolution are the hindcasts, whose 20th century ENSO skill is comparable to twice-yearly hindcasts generated by a state-of-the-art European operational forecasting system. Despite the so-called spring predictability barrier, present throughout the record, there is substantial second-year ENSO skill, especially after 1960. Overall, ENSO exhibited notably high values of both amplitude and skill towards the end of the 19th century, and again in recent decades.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2397-3722
Relation: https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00417-z
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/ae8b93f5e7ed4f8ea222a805f0d33b05
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.8b93f5e7ed4f8ea222a805f0d33b05
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:23973722
DOI:10.1038/s41612-023-00417-z