دورية أكاديمية

Characterising Uncertainty in Expert Assessments: Encoding Heavily Skewed Judgements.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Characterising Uncertainty in Expert Assessments: Encoding Heavily Skewed Judgements.
المؤلفون: Rebecca A O'Leary, Samantha Low-Choy, Rebecca Fisher, Kerrie Mengersen, M Julian Caley
المصدر: PLoS ONE, Vol 10, Iss 10, p e0141697 (2015)
بيانات النشر: Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2015.
سنة النشر: 2015
المجموعة: LCC:Medicine
LCC:Science
مصطلحات موضوعية: Medicine, Science
الوصف: When limited or no observed data are available, it is often useful to obtain expert knowledge about parameters of interest, including point estimates and the uncertainty around these values. However, it is vital to elicit this information appropriately in order to obtain valid estimates. This is particularly important when the experts' uncertainty about these estimates is strongly skewed, for instance when their best estimate is the same as the lowest value they consider possible. Also this is important when interest is in the aggregation of elicited values. In this paper, we compare alternative distributions for describing such estimates. The distributions considered include the lognormal, mirror lognormal, Normal and scaled Beta. The case study presented here involves estimation of the number of species in coral reefs, which requires eliciting counts within broader taxonomic groups, with highly skewed uncertainty estimates. This paper shows substantial gain in using the scaled Beta distribution, compared with Normal or lognormal distributions. We demonstrate that, for this case study on counting species, applying the novel encoding methodology developed in this paper can facilitate the acquisition of more rigorous estimates of (hierarchical) count data and credible bounds. The approach can also be applied to the more general case of enumerating a sampling frame via elicitation.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 1932-6203
Relation: http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4627781?pdf=render; https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0141697
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/a90842b881f3412ab201772bfe275204
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.90842b881f3412ab201772bfe275204
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:19326203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0141697