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Modeling and predicting hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome trends based on meteorological factors in Hu County, China.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Modeling and predicting hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome trends based on meteorological factors in Hu County, China.
المؤلفون: Dan Xiao, Kejian Wu, Xin Tan, Jing Le, Haitao Li, Yongping Yan, Zhikai Xu
المصدر: PLoS ONE, Vol 10, Iss 4, p e0123166 (2015)
بيانات النشر: Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2015.
سنة النشر: 2015
المجموعة: LCC:Medicine
LCC:Science
مصطلحات موضوعية: Medicine, Science
الوصف: BACKGROUND:Hu County is a serious hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemic area, with notable fluctuation of the HFRS epidemic in recent years. This study aimed to explore the optimal model for HFRS epidemic prediction in Hu. METHODS:Three models were constructed and compared, including a generalized linear model (GLM), a generalized additive model (GAM), and a principal components regression model (PCRM). The fitting and predictive adjusted R2 of each model were calculated. Ljung-Box Q tests for fitted and predicted residuals of each model were conducted. The study period was stratified into before (1971-1993) and after (1994-2012) vaccine implementation epochs to avoid the confounding factor of vaccination. RESULTS:The autocorrelation of fitted and predicted residuals of the GAM in the two epochs were not significant (Ljung-Box Q test, P>.05). The adjusted R2 for the predictive abilities of the GLM, GAM, and PCRM were 0.752, 0.799, and 0.665 in the early epoch, and 0.669, 0.756, and 0.574 in the recent epoch. The adjusted R2 values of the three models were lower in the early epoch than in the recent epoch. CONCLUSIONS:GAM is superior to GLM and PCRM for monthly HFRS case number prediction in Hu County. A shift in model reliability coincident with vaccination implementation demonstrates the importance of vaccination in HFRS control and prevention.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 1932-6203
Relation: http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4395290?pdf=render; https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0123166
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/93bb3ebba13d41e3a3b502a85c2cd0e9
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.93bb3ebba13d41e3a3b502a85c2cd0e9
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:19326203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0123166