With a focus on predicting the degradation of rubber performance in the natural environment and evaluating its reliability, the distribution law of accelerated aging life is analyzed through the accelerated aging test of hot oxygen. A Weibull distribution model is then established to verify the consistency of the accelerated aging mechanism. Through the constant stress accelerated aging test data, the aging characteristics of the rubber under alternating thermal stress load in the natural environment are inferred. The concept of thermal stress amplitude coefficient is proposed, and its numerical value is calculated by the combination of numerical simulation and single-peak curve fitting. Under the principle of time-temperature equivalence, the segmentation time equivalent method and the overall temperature equivalent method are employed to calculate the rubber performance degradation curve under natural environment aging conditions. Finally, according to the Weibull distribution, the aging reliability of the rubber over time is simulated. This research can provide a reference for the aging reliability evaluation of products under alternating stress.
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