دورية أكاديمية

A Time-Delayed Deterministic Model for the Spread of COVID-19 with Calibration on a Real Dataset

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: A Time-Delayed Deterministic Model for the Spread of COVID-19 with Calibration on a Real Dataset
المؤلفون: Giovanni Nastasi, Carla Perrone, Salvatore Taffara, Giorgia Vitanza
المصدر: Mathematics, Vol 10, Iss 4, p 661 (2022)
بيانات النشر: MDPI AG, 2022.
سنة النشر: 2022
المجموعة: LCC:Mathematics
مصطلحات موضوعية: COVID-19, SIRDV model, SIRD model, deterministic model, epidemic model, Mathematics, QA1-939
الوصف: During the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, each country has adopted different control measures to contrast the epidemic’s diffusion. Restrictions to mobility, public transport, and social life in general have been actuated to contain the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, we consider the deterministic SIRD model with delays proposed by Calleri et al., which is improved by adding the vaccinated compartment V (SIRDV model) and considering a time-dependent contact frequency. The three delays take into account the incubation time of the disease, the healing time, and the death time. The aim of this work is to study the effect of the vaccination campaigns in Great Britain (GBR) and Israel (ISR) during the pandemic period. The different restriction periods are included by fitting the contact frequency on real datasets as a piecewise constant function. As expected, the vaccination campaign reduces the amount of deaths and infected people. Furthermore, for the different levels of restriction policy, we find specific values of the contact frequency that can be used to predict the trend of the pandemic.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2227-7390
Relation: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/4/661; https://doaj.org/toc/2227-7390
DOI: 10.3390/math10040661
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/9ac2197a206d47669a2e315777204671
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.9ac2197a206d47669a2e315777204671
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:22277390
DOI:10.3390/math10040661