دورية أكاديمية
Valuing the Risks Created by Road Transport Demand Forecasting
| العنوان: | Valuing the Risks Created by Road Transport Demand Forecasting |
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| المؤلفون: | Kim, Kang soo, Cho, Sung bin, Yang, In seok |
| المصدر: | KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Vol 35, Iss 4, Pp 31-61 (2013) |
| بيانات النشر: | Korea Development Institute, 2013. |
| سنة النشر: | 2013 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Social Sciences LCC:Industries. Land use. Labor LCC:Economic theory. Demography |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | 도로 민간투자사업(Road PPP Projects), 교통량 예측위험의 시장가치(Market Value of Traffic Volume Forecasting Risk), 리스크 프리미엄(Risk Premium), Social Sciences, Industries. Land use. Labor, HD28-9999, Economic theory. Demography, HB1-3840 |
| الوصف: | The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value―such as minimum revenue guarantee―while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk―calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium―is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English Korean |
| تدمد: | 2586-2995 2586-4130 |
| Relation: | https://doaj.org/toc/2586-2995; https://doaj.org/toc/2586-4130 |
| DOI: | 10.23895/kdijep.2013.35.4.31 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/9e30396c41c94bf18a6f68df8078409d |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.9e30396c41c94bf18a6f68df8078409d |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 25862995 25864130 |
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| DOI: | 10.23895/kdijep.2013.35.4.31 |