دورية أكاديمية
Using a scenario-neutral approach to assess the impacts of climate change on flooding in the Ba River Basin, Viet Nam
| العنوان: | Using a scenario-neutral approach to assess the impacts of climate change on flooding in the Ba River Basin, Viet Nam |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Tran Van Tra, Van Thi Hang, Ngo Thi Thuy, Dang Thi Lan Phuong, Phan Van Thanh |
| المصدر: | Journal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 14, Iss 12, Pp 4899-4915 (2023) |
| بيانات النشر: | IWA Publishing, 2023. |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering LCC:Environmental sciences |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | ba river basin, climate change, mike flood, scenario-neutral approach, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350 |
| الوصف: | Due to the hydrologic non-stationarity and uncertainty related to the probability assignment of flood peaks under climate change, the use of flood statistics may no longer be applicable. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis (i.e., a scenario-neutral approach) is used to examine the impacts of climate change on flooding in the Ba River Basin. A Delphi method with a set of KAMET rules was used to obtain a representative and a threshold flood event. These inputs are used for hydraulic simulation using a MIKE FLOOD model package. Flood simulations were performed using parametrically varied rainfall and temperature conditions. In total, 22 conditions were explored and are in line with CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results obtained have several implications. Firstly, rainfall change is the primary factor affecting flood impact in the Ba River Basin. Secondly, the flood peak in the Ba River Basin is highly sensitive to an increase in rainfall by up to 10%. Thirdly, the flooded threshold is reached when rainfall increases beyond 20%. Fourthly, the flood extent and depth are expected to increase as rainfall increases. Further research could improve the study using satellite rainfall data, satellite digital elevation models, and stochastic weather generators. HIGHLIGHTS Flood statistics are no longer applicable due to hydrologic non-stationarity under climate change.; A MIKE FLOOD for the Ba River Basin simulated flood impacts using a scenario-neutral approach.; Rainfall change: major factor affecting flood impact.; Flood peak duration: highly sensitive to an increase of rainfall up to 10%.; Flooded area: beyond the threshold as rainfall increases up to 10%.; |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| Relation: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/12/4899; https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244; https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354 |
| DOI: | 10.2166/wcc.2023.569 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/b510dae13c3048d4befdc9a7209137db |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.b510dae13c3048d4befdc9a7209137db |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 20402244 24089354 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.2166/wcc.2023.569 |