دورية أكاديمية
Political risks: the 'red shift' in debt sustainability analysis
| العنوان: | Political risks: the 'red shift' in debt sustainability analysis |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Andrea Consiglio, Stavros Zenios |
| المصدر: | Risk Management Magazine, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 12-19 (2020) |
| بيانات النشر: | AIFIRM, 2020. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Risk in industry. Risk management |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | political risks, red shift, n debt sustainability analysis, Risk in industry. Risk management, HD61 |
| الوصف: | Political stability and economic policy uncertainty can be key determinants of sovereign debt dynamics, and we show how they can be incorporated in debt sustainability analysis. We distinguish between short-term ambiguity and long-term uncertainty about political risk factors, and using a combination of narrative scenarios and calibrated probabilistic scenarios we obtain a comprehensive heatmap of high-risk debt dynamics. We use Italy as an interesting case study and demonstrate a “red shift” in the assessment of vulnerabilities when accounting for political risks. Ignoring these risks can lead to excessive optimism and wrong decisions |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English Italian |
| تدمد: | 2612-3665 2724-2153 57700168 |
| Relation: | https://www.aifirm.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/RMM-2020-01-Excerpt-3.pdf; https://doaj.org/toc/2612-3665; https://doaj.org/toc/2724-2153 |
| DOI: | 10.47473/2020rmm0004 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/b56039a463e9470bbb577001680d989c |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.b56039a463e9470bbb577001680d989c |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 26123665 27242153 57700168 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.47473/2020rmm0004 |