دورية أكاديمية
COVID-19 epidemic curve in Brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. An ecological study
| العنوان: | COVID-19 epidemic curve in Brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. An ecological study |
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| المؤلفون: | Airandes de Sousa Pinto, Carlos Alberto Rodrigues, Carlito Lopes Nascimento Sobrinho, Lívia Almeida da Cruz, Edval Gomes dos Santos Junior, Paulo Cesar Nunes, Matheus Gomes Reis Costa, Manoel Otávio da Costa Rocha |
| المصدر: | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, Vol 55 (2022) |
| بيانات النشر: | Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT), 2022. |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Polynomial interpolation, Growth rate, Acceleration, Epidemic curve, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, RC955-962 |
| الوصف: | ABSTRACT Background: The epidemic curve has been obtained based on the 7-day moving average of the events. Although it facilitates the visualization of discrete variables, it does not allow the calculation of the absolute variation rate. Recently, we demonstrated that the polynomial interpolation method can be used to accurately calculate the daily acceleration of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. This study aimed to measure the diversity of epidemic curves and understand the importance of socioeconomic variables in the acceleration, peak cases, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazilian states. Methods: Epidemiological data for COVID-19 from federative units in Brazil were obtained from the Ministry of Health’s website from February 25 to July 11, 2020. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (https://www.ibge.gov.br/). Using the polynomial interpolation methods, daily cases, deaths and acceleration were calculated. Moreover, the correlation coefficient between the epidemic curve data and socioeconomic data was determined. Results: The combination of daily data and case acceleration determined that Brazilian states were in different stages of the epidemic. Maximum case acceleration, peak of cases, maximum death acceleration, and peak of deaths were associated with the Gini index of the gross domestic product of Brazilian states and population density but did not correlate with the per capita gross domestic product of Brazilian states. Conclusions: Brazilian states showed heterogeneous data curves. Population density and socioeconomic inequality were correlated with a more rapid exponential growth in new cases and deaths. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1678-9849 0037-8682 |
| Relation: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822022000100300&tlng=en; https://doaj.org/toc/1678-9849 |
| DOI: | 10.1590/0037-8682-0118-2021 |
| URL الوصول: | https://doaj.org/article/ccdb8206b21e4deab42bc651ead31b01 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsdoj.b8206b21e4deab42bc651ead31b01 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 16789849 00378682 |
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| DOI: | 10.1590/0037-8682-0118-2021 |