ObjectiveTo explore the relationship between plasma arginase-1 (ARG1) and early transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) refractoriness in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and develop nomograms for predicting early TACE refractoriness.MethodsA total of 200 patients with HCC, treated with TACE, were included in the study, including 120 in the training set and 80 in the validation set. Pre-treatment enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to detected the plasma ARG1 levels of the patient, and independent predictors of early TACE refractoriness were determined using a multivariate logistic regression model, based on which a predictive model was developed using a nomogram.ResultsRisk of early TACE refractoriness was negatively correlated with plasma ARG1 levels, and multivariate logistic analysis showed tumour size (OR = 1.138, 95% CI = 1.006-1.288, P = 0.041), multiple tumors (OR=4.374, 95% CI = 1.189-16.089, P = 0.026), platelet count (OR = 0.990, 95% CI = 0.980-0.999, P = 0.036), and plasma ARG1 levels (OR = 0.209, 95% CI = 0.079-0.551, P = 0.002) to be independent prognostic factors for early TACE refractoriness.The AUC value for the nomogram of the training cohort was 0.786 (95% CI = 0.702–0.870), and the validation set AUC value was 0.833 (95% CI = 0.791-0.875).The decision curve analysis suggested that the nomogram had good clinical utility.ConclusionHigh plasma ARG1 expression was associated with a lower incidence of early TACE refractoriness. The nomogram constructed based on four independent prognostic factors could facilitate an individualised prediction of the incidence of early TACE refractoriness.
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