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Global Asymmetries in the Influence of ENSO on Flood Risk Based on 1,600 Years of Hybrid Simulations

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Global Asymmetries in the Influence of ENSO on Flood Risk Based on 1,600 Years of Hybrid Simulations
المؤلفون: L. Del Rio Amador, M. Boudreault, D. A. Carozza
المصدر: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2023)
بيانات النشر: Wiley, 2023.
سنة النشر: 2023
المجموعة: LCC:Geophysics. Cosmic physics
مصطلحات موضوعية: floods, ENSO, El Niño, machine learning, risk modeling, catastrophe modeling, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
الوصف: Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often considered as a source of long‐term predictability for extreme events via its teleconnection patterns. However, given that its characteristic cycle varies from two to 7 years, it is difficult to obtain statistically significant conclusions based on observational periods spanning only a few decades. To overcome this, we apply the global flood risk modeling framework developed by Carozza and Boudreault to an equivalent of 1,600 years of bias‐corrected General Circulation Model outputs. The results show substantial anomalies in flood occurrences and impacts for El Niño and La Niña when compared to the all‐year baseline. We were able to obtain a larger global coverage of statistically significant results than previous studies limited to observational data. Asymmetries in anomalies for both ENSO phases show a larger global influence of El Niño than La Niña on flood hazard and risk.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 1944-8007
0094-8276
Relation: https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276; https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL102027
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/cb928b20dbc246298276ce985a0d262a
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.b928b20dbc246298276ce985a0d262a
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:19448007
00948276
DOI:10.1029/2022GL102027