With an emphasis on the combined degradation of railway track geometry and components, a new numerical-analytical method is proposed for predicting the track geometrical vertical levelling loss (VLL). In contrast to previous studies, this research unprecedentedly considers the influence of initial track irregularities (ITI) on VLL under cyclic loadings, elastic-plastic behaviour, and different operational dynamic conditions. The non-linear numerical models are simulated using an explicit finite element package known as LS-Dyna, and their results are validated by full-scale experimental and field measurement data. The outcomes are iteratively regressed by an analytical logarithmic function that cumulates permanent settlements, which innovatively extends the effect of ITI on VLL in a long-term behaviour. For a typical heavy-haul railway operating under 30 tons axle load and 60 km/h train velocity, the result indicates that the set of ITI with the highest standard deviation (SD) of vertical profile (VP) degrades faster (37% on average) than that with the lowest SD. Additionally, our new findings reveal that the worst scenario is related to a train running at 60 km/h and carrying a load of 20 tons/axle in an uneven track whose SD of VP evolves from 3.23 mm at N = 0 (ITI) to 7.20 mm, whereas the best one corresponds to a train at 60 km/h and 30 ton axle load in an uneven track whose SD of VP downgrades from 0.48 to 1.50 mm, both at 3 M cycles (or 60 million gross tons). These findings indicate the importance of considering the ITI for predicting track geometrical VLL under cyclic loadings. Therefore, based on this research, an acceptable condition (thresholds) of ITI can be redefined for a minimum effect on VLL, which can support the development of practical maintenance guidelines to extend the railway track service life.
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