Estimating dates of origin and end of COVID-19 epidemics

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان:	Estimating dates of origin and end of COVID-19 epidemics
المؤلفون:	Beneteau, Thomas, Elie, Baptiste, Sofonea, Mircea T., Alizon, Samuel
المصدر:	Peer Community Journal, Vol 1, Iss , Pp - (2021)
بيانات النشر:	Peer Community In, 2021.
سنة النشر:	2021
المجموعة:	LCC:Archaeology LCC:Science
مصطلحات موضوعية:	Archaeology, CC1-960, Science
الوصف:	Estimating the date at which an epidemic started in a country and the date at which it can end depending on interventions intensity are important to guide public health responses. Both are potentially shaped by similar factors including stochasticity (due to small population sizes), superspreading events, and memory effects (the fact that the occurrence of some events, e.g. recovering from an infection, depend on the past, e.g. the number of days since the infection). Focusing on COVID-19 epidemics, we develop and analyse mathematical models to explore how these three factors may affect early and final epidemic dynamics. Regarding the date of origin, we find limited effects on the mean estimates, but strong effects on their variances. Regarding the date of extinction following lockdown onset, mean values decrease with stochasticity or with the presence of superspreading events. These results underline the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in infection history and transmission patterns to accurately capture early and late epidemic dynamics.
نوع الوثيقة:	article
وصف الملف:	electronic resource
اللغة:	English
تدمد:	2804-3871
Relation:	https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.63/; https://doaj.org/toc/2804-3871
DOI:	10.24072/pcjournal.63
URL الوصول:	https://doaj.org/article/fa854b88b8e546e0babd29691e0fa13e
رقم الأكسشن:	edsdoj.fa854b88b8e546e0babd29691e0fa13e
قاعدة البيانات:	Directory of Open Access Journals

Full Text Finder

الوصف
تدمد:	28043871
DOI:	10.24072/pcjournal.63