دورية أكاديمية
A probabilistic model for explaining the points achieved by a team in football competition. Forecasting and regression with applications to the Spanish competition
| العنوان: | A probabilistic model for explaining the points achieved by a team in football competition. Forecasting and regression with applications to the Spanish competition |
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| المؤلفون: | Gómez-Déniz, Emilio, Dávila Cárdenes, Nancy, Pérez Sánchez, José María |
| المصدر: | SORT- Statistics and Operations Research Transactions; 2019: Vol.: 43 Núm.: 1 January-June; p. 95-112 SORT-Statistics and Operations Research Transactions; 2019: Vol.: 43 Núm.: 1 January-June; p. 95-112 |
| Publication Status: | published |
| بيانات النشر: | Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya, 2019. |
| سنة النشر: | 2019 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Covariate, football data, forecasting, regression, sport statistics, truncated distribution, weighted distribution, 62J02, 62J20, 62F15. |
| الوصف: | In the last decades, a lot of research papers applying statistical methods for analysing sports data have been published. Football, also called soccer, is one of the most popular sports all over the world organised in national championships in a round robin format in which the team reaching the most points at the end of the tournament wins the competition. The aim of this work is to develop a suitable probability model for studying the points achieved by a team in a football match. For this purpose, we built a discrete probability distribution taking values, zero for losing, one for a draw and three for a victory. We test its performance using data from the Spanish Football League (First division) during the 2013-14 season. Furthermore, the model provides an attractive framework for predicting points and incorporating covariates in order to study the factors affecting the points achieved by the teams. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 2013-8830 1696-2281 |
| Relation: | https://www.raco.cat/index.php/SORT/article/view/356183/448127 |
| URL الوصول: | https://www.raco.cat/index.php/SORT/article/view/356183 |
| حقوق: | L'accés als articles a text complet inclosos a RACO és gratuït, però els actes de reproducció, distribució, comunicació pública o transformació total o parcial estan subjectes a les condicions d'ús de cada revista i poden requerir el consentiment exprés i escrit dels autors i/o institucions editores. |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsrac.356183 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | RACO (Revistes Catalanes amb Accés Obert) |
| تدمد: | 20138830 16962281 |
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