Forecasting chemical exposure in a changing world
| العنوان: | Forecasting chemical exposure in a changing world |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Hader, John D., 1992 |
| المساهمون: | MacLeod, Matthew, Professor, Cousins, Ian, Professor, Huijbregts, Mark, Professor |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | global change, exposure modelling, dietary change, wastewater treatment, chemical fate and transport, Environmental Sciences, miljövetenskap |
| الوصف: | Exposure to anthropogenic chemicals in natural and built environments is a threat to humans and other species. Now and through the 21st Century, the world will experience a large number of global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, shifts in demographics, agricultural expansion, socioeconomic development, and an increasing number and volume of chemicals on the market. All of these forcings have potentially important ramifications for how humans and other species are exposed to chemicals. A better understanding of global change forcings and their impacts on chemical exposures could help identify local, regional, and international chemical management techniques that could help avert harmful changes in exposure in the coming decades. Overall, this thesis aims to understand how exposure to chemicals may change in the future against the backdrop of rapidly changing natural and built environments. Five studies have been conducted in pursuit of this aim, including a literature review, two exposure modelling studies, and the development of an industrial chemical spill risk screening tool for sewage treatment plants. The current lack of knowledge around chemical emission rates is a key information gap for the ability to forecast how global change forcings might change the emissions of chemicals in agricultural environments, especially through the use of wastewater, biosolids, and veterinary pharmaceuticals. Consensus, high-throughput exposure modelling in the context of changing climate, indoor microenvironments, and dietary patterns showed changes in intake fraction up to a factor of 2, driven most notably by changing precipitation patterns and human diet. Global-scale modelling of chemical exposure with shifting socioeconomic and dietary patterns showed that socioeconomic development may lead to a larger fraction of global emissions occurring in rapidly industrialising regions with high population density (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa and India) leading to a larger fraction of the global burden of chemical exposure being borne by these historically low chemical-emitting regions. In the context of rapid urbanization, the upstream chemical risk assessment tool we developed for sewage treatment plants showed, in a case study in Sweden, that fewer than 1% of chemicals posed a risk to plant operations, but the risk from roughly 40% of chemicals could not be quantified due to lack of available toxicity data. Overall, this thesis shows that the use of numerical modelling and data analysis can elucidate key factors that determine exposure of humans and other species to chemicals in a rapidly changing environment. Where and how much chemical is emitted in the future, and what humans will be eating, are key factors determining population-level exposure to chemicals that should be considered in future decision making. Better information reporting for chemical emissions in agricultural environments and chemical toxicity towards sewage treatment plants are key data gaps that need to be closed to improve prospective exposure assessment. To help facilitate more effective chemical management at the international level, this thesis also presents an initial harmonized list of key terms used within exposure science, as robust and effective communication is urgently needed to solve the global problem of chemical pollution and exposure in a rapidly changing environment. |
| وصف الملف: | electronic |
| URL الوصول: | https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-216844 https://su.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1754540/FULLTEXT01.pdf https://su.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1754540/PREVIEW01.jpg |
| قاعدة البيانات: | SwePub |
| الوصف غير متاح. |