دورية أكاديمية
Natural Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency in Bayesian Reasoning
| العنوان: | Natural Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency in Bayesian Reasoning |
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| اللغة: | English |
| المؤلفون: | Binder, Karin (ORCID |
| المصدر: | Advances in Health Sciences Education. Aug 2021 26(3):847-863. |
| الإتاحة: | Springer. Available from: Springer Nature. One New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, NY 10004. Tel: 800-777-4643; Tel: 212-460-1500; Fax: 212-460-1700; e-mail: customerservice@springernature.com; Web site: https://link.springer.com/ |
| Peer Reviewed: | Y |
| Page Count: | 17 |
| تاريخ النشر: | 2021 |
| نوع الوثيقة: | Journal Articles Reports - Research |
| Education Level: | Higher Education Postsecondary Education |
| Descriptors: | Clinical Diagnosis, Efficiency, Probability, Bayesian Statistics, Logical Thinking, Evaluative Thinking, Accuracy, Statistical Inference, Medical Students |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8 |
| تدمد: | 1382-4996 |
| مستخلص: | When physicians are asked to determine the positive predictive value from the a priori probability of a disease and the sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian reasoning), it often comes to misjudgments with serious consequences. In daily clinical practice, however, it is not only important that doctors receive a tool with which they can "correctly" judge--the "speed" of these judgments is also a crucial factor. In this study, we analyzed accuracy and efficiency in medical Bayesian inferences. In an empirical study we varied information format (probabilities vs. natural frequencies) and visualization (text only vs. tree only) for four contexts. 111 medical students participated in this study by working on four Bayesian tasks with common medical problems. The correctness of their answers was coded and the time spent on task was recorded. The median time for a correct Bayesian inference is fastest in the version with a frequency tree (2:55 min) compared to the version with a probability tree (5:47 min) or to the text only versions based on natural frequencies (4:13 min) or probabilities (9:59 min). The score "diagnostic efficiency" (calculated by: median time divided by percentage of correct inferences) is best in the version with a frequency tree (4:53 min). Frequency trees allow more accurate "and" faster judgments. Improving correctness and efficiency in Bayesian tasks might help to decrease overdiagnosis in daily clinical practice, which on the one hand cause cost and on the other hand might endanger patients' safety. |
| Abstractor: | As Provided |
| Entry Date: | 2021 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | EJ1306095 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | ERIC |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 1382-4996 |
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| DOI: | 10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8 |